There is something special about Sunday morning, the Sunday Times, hot croissants with honey and butter, excellent. Headlines, the Chancellor has a £50 billion plan for growth which appears to involve other people’s money in an off balance sheet vehicle. Thus do we learn lessons from the financial crisis. It is plan A plus in a 1930s style new deal for infrastructure and housing.
David Smith writes of the Euro crisis with lyrics from the Neil Sedaka classic, breaking up is hard to do, ending with a challenge to the Perry Como ditty - it is impossible. Not only is it possible, according to the DS song sheet, it is probably desirable.
UK economics news this week, producer prices in October suggest the inflation peak has passed, retail prices are expected to fall significantly next year. Manufacturing output (September) increased by just 2%, so much for the march of the makers rebuilding the workshop of the world. One bright spot capital goods increased by 7% stimulated by export growth. It would appear workshops are being built but in other parts of the world.
Constructions stats are flat and the trade figures will disappoint those in search of a rebalancing to net export growth. It just is not going to happen. Revise the models. The J curve is just a slippery downward slope with no bend in sight.
The UK economy is flatlining, at least we know where we are for the moment. If employment holds and the debt reduction targets can be met, then accept a few years of flat growth as a base case, until the election beckons.
Back to the day job and on Monday, the day begins with internal meetings followed by a presentation to the Colliers senior management team. Then follows my MBS lecture on valuing high tech stocks, Groupon, Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter and Zynga.
Tuesday, it is the Business Leadership Council meeting led by John Early. The BLC is a good group of business leaders with lots of hot topics around the table. Always enjoyable.
Later in the day Mark Fahy from the London Stock Exchange is in the office to brief me on the panel session the following day.
Wednesday, it is the LSE access to finance session led by Shore Capital Partners. Easy role to chair. with excellent presentations with Simon Caunt from the Bank of England, Mark from the LSE, Gerard Lane from Shore, Gervais Williams from MAM funds, David Smith from AXM, and Steve Smith from Daisy Communications wrapping up proceedings. All is finished by 11:40.
Back to the office then off to lunch with Yorkshire Bank. I am asked to lead the conversation on quantatitive easing and the asset purchase facility. The conversation soon moves on to other topics. What is it about economics?
Back to the office to finalise my lecture, then off to MBS to deliver on the new macro prudential regulatory environment. I cover, Basel III, G-SIFIS, the Vickers Report and the new approach to financial regulation.
I explain the FSA is scrapped to be replaced by the FPC, the PRA, the FCA (not the CPMA as first thought). It is the end of boom and bust.
Regulators must think that HSBC stands for the Hornchurch and Shoreditch Banking Corporation. It does not. Much more regulation and a relocation is on the cards for all but the state owned.
Thursday, early meeting with the Chairman for the pre board meeting meeting. All is well but Paul is hobbling with a tight achilles tendon. I am sympathetic. Richard Bertram from TSK is in the office later to discuss a conference planned for next year.
After lunch I have a briefing meeting with Sir Howard. Father Christmas is guarding City Hall resting on a structure which must have been specified by Thomas Telford or developed from bits left over from the Forth Bridge. The free climbing option has been canned by health and safety several years ago. A now sedentary Santa is safe in our city.
In the evening I call in to the Business Desk birthday celebration at Epernay. Lots of good people around and Chris Barry is in good form. Simon Allport sorts out a lunch date. David Allanson asks if he can sponsor the Business conference again as part of the banking group. Least I think that is what he said. It was a bit noisy. Must call next week.
Friday the day starts with a panel session on the Future of Professional Services at the Hive. I am on a panel with Jonathan Hurst from KPMG, David Partridge from Argent and Mike Reeves from Clearwater. Mike opens with a challenging presentation. Michael Taylor is in the chair. 7:30 start but I make it. I do not have a bacon sandwich, my body is a temple. I am a slave to my tennis.
Later in the day, Nick Boden confirms sponsorship of the Andrew Sentance lunch in December. Andrew is now senior economic advisor at PwC and has just called for the resignation of two deputy governors from the MPC. Lunch at the Yang Sing on the 8th December, the theme is fire crackers and fortune cookies at the Bank of England. Not one to miss - book early for this and the Business Conference in March.
Saturday, working in the morning, then off to play tennis in the afternoon with Mary as usual. It is a close run thing!
Hope all is well with all, more news next week,
John
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