There is something special about Sunday morning, the Sunday Times, hot croissants with honey and butter, excellent. Headlines today, the 50p tax rate raises nothing. No surprise in the news but we will have to wait for the official HMRC report next year before the Chancellor will address the issue. Twenty economists have written to Number 11 urging abolition.
Unfortunately, this has nothing to do with economics just a manifestation of a coalition government conflicted between the dogma of envy and the pragmatic of policy.
David Smith expresses concerns about growth and the need for a Keynesian boost to capital and infrastructure spending. Yes, the recovery is off track as our recent Economics Quarterly suggested.
Economics new this week, producer prices on Friday suggest the peak in input prices may have passed as the rate of change falls to 16% in August from 18% in July. Other news confirms the slow down with the OECD suggesting growth for the UK of just 0.3% in the final quarter of the year. The march of the makers may yet give way to the march of the corporate undertakers, if we are not careful.
This week, I read the Alistair Darling book, Back from the Brink. You have to admire the way in which both Darling and Brown reacted to the banking crisis. The Governor does not escape criticism having been slow to react, deemed out of touch with the banking sector and overly obsessed with moral hazard and a reluctance to bail out the banks. So much for the lender of last resort.
Phillip Stephens writing in the FT on Saturday suggests the former chancellor has written a refreshingly unvarnished account of what happened, revealing just how close to complete financial shutdown we were. It is a gripping tale, told well, he says and it is.
The book touches on the HBOS merger, apparently the Bank of Scotland referred to the Halifax managers as the Haliban. So much for post acquisition team building.
Physically, Darling is easily recognised by his shock of white hair contrasting with his deep black eyebrows. On a visit to China, he was asked if he actually dyed his eyebrows. Since they have the appearance of large black hairy, caterpillars, no surprise had he been asked if they were on the menu for the state banquet that night.
Darling cautions, quite rightly, that Chancellors have to show humility and honesty to gain the respect of the voters. It is true, Chancellors should demonstrate a high degree of economic competence along with intellectual honesty and integrity, avoiding cliches and sound bite were possible.
Recent speeches from number eleven include back from the brink of bankruptcy, the march of the makers, ahead of the curve, offering a safe haven, on a rock of stability, masters of our own destiny, executing plans designed in tough times for tough times, acting first like a tug of war team pulling in the same direction, then like a football team, playing in the right position. We will not win anything if we all charge ahead in the same direction, we would just let in goals at the back. Excellent.
Back to the day job, On Monday I was in London to meet with NIESR the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Jonathan Portes is the new Director, previously, Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office. NIESR will help with the table output for the Economics Quarterly Review in future.
Later a meeting with Mark Florman the new CEO of the BVCA. It is good to meet Mark having enjoyed a great relationship with his predecessor Simon Walker, now at the IOD.
In the afternoon tea and sherry at the House of Lords with Lord Wade and Baroness Wheatcroft. It is always great to visit the upper house and catch site of Lord Lawson of Blaby and Baron Bannside (Lord Paisley) and others.
Tuesday, lunch presentation with the British Israeli Chamber of Commerce. Gideon Klaus had asked me to talk about pro.manchester and the potential business propositions between Tel Aviv and Manchester.
Gideon works so hard for the Chamber and Brian White was in the Chair. My thanks to them.
In the evening, reception at Harvey Nichols for the new Chairman. Two hundred and fifty people turned up to enjoy the evening and to hear Paul Lupton outline his plans for the year in office. It was a good evening and for pro.manchester a different venue.
Wednesday an evening dinner with MCR and their guests Barclays special situations team. MCR have just been appointed to the Barclays panel and listening to me talk about the British Economy was their special treat, that and a great meal at the Restaurant Bar and Grill. How lucky can some people be!
Thursday almost one hundred people turned up for the members briefing on SME club, thanks to Deloitte for hosting the event. We outlined the plans and ideal engagement for member companies. Gina and the e-team, have done a great job to pull the programme together for the formal launch next week.
Just received an e-mail from Al Mackin at the e-word, he has not received his Sunday missive yet, concerned Tesco may have run out of croissants, as if! Here it is.
Hope all is well with all,
More news next week,
JKA
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