There is something special about Sunday Morning, The Sunday Times, hot croissants, with honey and butter, excellent. Last Sunday I received a letter from America. Well, it was an e-mail from Angie Robinson in DC, a sort of Washington Post and Waffles. The latter a reference to breakfast, not to the literary style of the new CEO of Manchester Central of course.
Why, Angie asked, had I made no mention of the US debt crisis, with the nation perched on the edge of financial disaster, Angie and Drew, from Marketing Manchester, were on the spot enjoying the tea party. I had ignored the major issue. Why so? The answer, as an avid fan of West Wing, I had seen it all before. Sooner or later, Ged Bartlett marches on Capitol hill and the republicans retreat. West Wing season 5 - Shutdown. And so it proved by midweek, the crisis was over. The deadline was met. The debt ceiling had been raised yet again. Life goes on. I sort of knew it would.
Back in the UK, my deadline for the Economics Quarterly loomed. In purdah for virtually three days, the 44 page document finally went to the printers on Wednesday. Released next week, the title is of a recovery off track and a headline GDP growth rate slashed to just over 1%. The march of the makers rebuilding the workshop of the world just another Big Society trope.
Since then both the Office for Budget responsibility and the Bank of England have hinted of a downgrade to their own forecasts [both Robert Chote and Charlie Bean will be with us in the early Autumn]. Paul Krugman blogged on Osborne delusions finding solace in fantasy. The wolf is at the door and Mr Osborne thinks it is the confidence fairy. He said it not me.
Another e-mail on Sunday, this one from David Smith who took great exception to my reference that he had bought the official ONS line on Q2 growth hook line and sinker. David thought the reference was
silly. This from an economist still waiting for depreciation and the J curve to improve the balance of payments. Excellent. I apologised of course, blaming the croissants.
Thursday, the markets crashed as fears of a double dip recession, US debt and prospects for the Southern states of Europe returned to top of mind. You know things are bad when Robert Peston appears on Newsnight. The day job, an end is nigh, sandwich board in Threadneedle street, cast aside for the evening.
Markets crashed, S & P down graded the US debt below that of Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Vince Cable and the Chancellor crowed about safe havens as ten year gilts fell below 3%. Safe haven maybe but capital flows are not reflected in an undervalued currency and the exit of US funds from the UK banking sector.
What will happen in Euroland? Sooner or later the Germans will have to put more into the European Financial Stability Facility, back a Euro bond programme and invest in some olive bonds from Italy and Spain. The message to markets has to be substantial. Markets love to nibble and will wage war on the weakest in sequence. Yields have risen to over 6% in Italy and Spain. What is it about 7% that is so terminal?
Enough of world affairs,Thursday and a meeting with Clive Memmott CEO of the GM Chamber of Commerce. Friday and a brain storming session to discuss the name for SME club. Six weeks to launch, no name and no web site is something of a challenge. A great piece in the FT last week about e-commerce quoting Zynga and others. The key message this is interactive e. The old formula get it right then go is replaced by the more dynamic, go then get it right. I copied the article to Rachel and the team to offer some reassurance and relief.
Good session with the brain storm, they all liked the use of the word real. Ian Brodie later put the boot in to that. Lunchtime and a meeting with David Sharrock and Adam Jupp from MEN to discuss progress on SME club. This followed by a meeting with Fudge, cool creatives from Bolton and latest recruits to the e-team.
Saturday and the rugby season opens. Hurray. Always good to see England beat the Welsh but who on earth decided to play the team in an All Black Strip. Over eighty thousand supporters, the majority in
white strip almost sang somewhere over the rainbow, instead of swing low in the confusion. For the world cup the RFU should go further and prepare an England haka, a sort of cross between Morris dancing and march of the Icenae.
The diary is thinning out so every chance to get forty years of UK trade written up as a discussion paper. Will meet up with the kids this week, Helen is back from Ireland and Pete is up with the latest Ashcroft derivative.
Hope all is well with all, more news next week,
John
John Ashcroft CEO pro.manchester.
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