Sunday Times and Croissants - CEO's update 14th August

There is something special about Sunday Morning, The Sunday Times, hot croissants, with honey and butter, excellent. The headlines from today’s Sunday Times suggest the PM is to make life hell for gangs. Great - but is this really the way to deal with the Metropolitan police?

According to a recent paper from the Centre for Economic Policy Research, periods of austerity and budget cuts go hand in hand with social instability and violence. Thatcher knew this. One of the first acts of the Conservative administration was to increase the resources and pay of senior officers in the police force and the army. Ominous but at least there appeared to be a plan.

Cameron’s policy to cut back amongst the met is contra cyclical at a time of augmented social disorder. Bringing in a super cop from the US merely adds insult to redundancy. The use of casual statistics is misleading. To discover that less than a third of the police are on the front line at any one time, is to discover the metrics of a three shift system. We are also told we export more to Ireland than we do to China. So what? We didn’t go to war (twice) with Ireland for the right to export narcotics. This is no time to bash the met or the makers.

This week the ONS delivered more bad news for manufacturing and the trade sector. The march of the makers, rebuilding the workshop of the world, rebalancing the economy had a further set back as manufacturing and export growth slows. The external deficit was worse than anticipated in the Quarterly Economics Review. Keynes would say, when the facts change, I change my opinion. The Bank of England takes a different line. Mystified as to why the trade deficit has not reacted to Sterling’s depreciation, for the old lady, when the facts change, it is time to challenge the facts. Both export numbers and the GDP data, must be wrong, they appear not to fit the model. A great box in the inflation report explains.

Yes it’s the inflation report again. I love the one hour web cast of the Governor and the Bank of England team as they hold a press conference before the top economics journalists. The Governor appears like a disgruntled grandfather, dealing with irritating juvenile questions from young family members across the Sunday dinner table. It can be quite amusing, top names tremble as the Governor demonstrates disdain. Inflation will hit 5%, rates may stay on hold for as much as two years, the letter to the Chancellor explaining the overshoot will be sent by e-mail auto responder and the MPC is to meet quarterly. Excellent.

Back to the day job, Monday and a meeting with Nigel Collier from SkyLab about the e team. Tuesday and a brand meeting to discuss alternate names for the SME club, my thanks to Lee Herbert from Blue Monkey and Simon Calderbank (Studio North) for their help and persistence.

Tuesday evening and news of the disturbances in Manchester filters through. We watch the helicopter hover over the city and read the Twitter feeds. Structured criminality behind a feral facade, the evident explanation of events in the centre. Zero tolerance the only response. Respect to all in the front line and the clean up. Inadequate condolences to all those affected by the violence.

The Manchester spirit demonstrated by one of our directors, SKIP, (Steve K, the big name in IP), nothing would menace his pilgrimage to the Mark Addy for the Tuesday night gastro pub evening.

Wednesday morning, a finance committee meeting followed by a meeting with Chris Froggatt at Ford Campbell. Great corporate finance company with a focussed business plan. Thursday a meeting with the Steering Group at Shoosmiths. It’s alway good to present to so many seniors in any of the member companies.
 
Friday and a day off to meet up with the grandchildren. Lots of photos up on Facebook. Strange to be called a grandfather but really stunned when my youngest son is referred to as Dad. Spooky.

Hope all is well with all, more news next week,
John
John Ashcroft CEO pro.manchester.
Follow on Twitter @jkaonline, or join me on LinkedIn and Google+ @John Ashcroft.

* CEPR Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009 Jacopo Ponticelli , Hans-Joachim Voth