pro manchester CEO

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The move to the new web site consolidates two blog sites into one, combining four years of history in the economics blog into one big better site: Join us at johnashcroft.co.uk. Thanks to the eword for all of the help. JKA

Sunday Times and Croissants - CEO's update 11th September

There is something special about Sunday morning, the Sunday Times, hot croissants with honey and butter, excellent. Headlines today, the 50p tax rate raises nothing. No surprise in the news but we will have to wait for the official HMRC report next year before the Chancellor will address the issue. Twenty economists have written to Number 11 urging abolition.

Unfortunately, this has nothing to do with economics just a manifestation of a coalition government conflicted between the dogma of envy and the pragmatic of policy.

David Smith expresses concerns about growth and the need for a Keynesian boost to capital and infrastructure spending. Yes, the recovery is off track as our recent Economics Quarterly suggested.

Economics new this week, producer prices on Friday suggest the peak in input prices may have passed as the rate of change falls to 16% in August from 18% in July. Other news confirms the slow down with the OECD suggesting growth for the UK of just 0.3% in the final quarter of the year. The march of the makers may yet give way to the march of the corporate undertakers, if we are not careful.

This week, I read the Alistair Darling book, Back from the Brink. You have to admire the way in which both Darling and Brown reacted to the banking crisis. The Governor does not escape criticism having been slow to react, deemed out of touch with the banking sector and overly obsessed with moral hazard and a reluctance to bail out the banks. So much for the lender of last resort.

Phillip Stephens writing in the FT on Saturday suggests the former chancellor has written a refreshingly unvarnished account of what happened, revealing just how close to complete financial shutdown we were. It is a gripping tale, told well, he says and it is.

The book touches on the HBOS merger, apparently the Bank of Scotland referred to the Halifax managers as the Haliban. So much for post acquisition team building.

Physically, Darling is easily recognised by his shock of white hair contrasting with his deep black eyebrows. On a visit to China, he was asked if he actually dyed his eyebrows. Since they have the appearance of large black hairy, caterpillars, no surprise had he been asked if they were on the menu for the state banquet that night.

Darling cautions, quite rightly, that Chancellors have to show humility and honesty to gain the respect of the voters. It is true, Chancellors should demonstrate a high degree of economic competence along with intellectual honesty and integrity, avoiding cliches and sound bite were possible.

Recent speeches from number eleven include back from the brink of bankruptcy, the march of the makers, ahead of the curve, offering a safe haven, on a rock of stability, masters of our own destiny, executing plans designed in tough times for tough times, acting first like a tug of war team pulling in the same direction, then like a football team, playing in the right position. We will not win anything if we all charge ahead in the same direction, we would just let in goals at the back. Excellent.

Back to the day job, On Monday I was in London to meet with NIESR the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Jonathan Portes is the new Director, previously, Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office. NIESR will help with the table output for the Economics Quarterly Review in future.

Later a meeting with Mark Florman the new CEO of the BVCA. It is good to meet Mark having enjoyed a great relationship with his predecessor Simon Walker, now at the IOD.

In the afternoon tea and sherry at the House of Lords with Lord Wade and Baroness Wheatcroft. It is always great to visit the upper house and catch site of Lord Lawson of Blaby and Baron Bannside (Lord Paisley) and others.

Tuesday, lunch presentation with the British Israeli Chamber of Commerce. Gideon Klaus had asked me to talk about pro.manchester and the potential business propositions between Tel Aviv and Manchester.
Gideon works so hard for the Chamber and Brian White was in the Chair. My thanks to them.

In the evening, reception at Harvey Nichols for the new Chairman. Two hundred and fifty people turned up to enjoy the evening and to hear Paul Lupton outline his plans for the year in office. It was a good evening and for pro.manchester a different venue. 

Wednesday an evening dinner with MCR  and their guests Barclays special situations team. MCR have just been appointed to the Barclays panel and listening to me talk about the British Economy was their special treat, that and a great meal at the Restaurant Bar and Grill. How lucky can some people be!

Thursday almost one hundred people turned up for the members briefing on SME club, thanks to Deloitte for hosting the event. We outlined the plans and ideal engagement for member companies.  Gina and the e-team, have done a great job to pull the programme together for the formal launch next week.

Just received an e-mail from Al Mackin at the e-word, he has not received his Sunday missive yet, concerned Tesco may have run out of croissants, as if! Here it is.

Hope all is well with all,
More news next week,
JKA

Follow on Twitter @jkaonline, or join me on LinkedIn or Google+.
Check out the pro.manchester blog post for regular updates.

Sunday Times and Croissants - CEO's update 4th September

There is something special about Sunday morning, the Sunday Times, hot croissants with honey and butter, excellent. This week-end Mary and I,  are in London, no need to trek out for the paper or food. Room service, how convenient, must speak to concierge at the Edge.

Headlines, from the Sunday Times, Gordon Brown believed the financial crisis would be over in six months, the Governor, the lender of last resort, did not really want to bail out the banks (moral hazard) and Fred Goodwin brought panettone to the Chancellor as a quid pro quo for the bail out. Now there is a deal maker.

Yes it is  Alistair Darling making the headlines with his new book, Back from the Brink, 1000 days at Number 11. He describes the Governor as stubborn and exasperating,  Gordon Brown as brutal and volcanic, management as chaotic and crisis ridden. Hardly reassuring and a lot to be said for a thirty year rule (cabinet papers) applying to political biographies.

Economic new this week a bit thin on the ground. Opinion polls and surveys are gloomy about household sentiment and manufacturing output. David Smith picks up the point with some cautionary words on trends in polls.

Back to the day job, on Tuesday, Mark Halliwell from Gateley called in to talk about the business angels projects and the work of CENBAR the centre for business angels research. Mark is an old friend and it is always good to see him.

Later in the afternoon a meeting with RBS to finalise the details of sponsorship for SME club. A tough two hour session with Rob Pailin and Mark Andrews, emerged bruised but fingers intact.

Wednesday, final draft of my discussion paper - Understanding the Balance of Payments - Forty Years of UK Trade 1970 - 2010, hoping to get this out later in the month. It is as exciting as the title
suggests, another riveting read, might go for the Darling book after all.

Thursday a meeting with the New Economy discussing options for a research paper into early stage VC finance. Jonathan Diggines in the room together with Mike Emmerich, great fun. Do not mention intervention but someone did.

Friday a meeting with the e-team to discuss the SME club launch followed by a visit to the dentist. The SME club launch is ten days away and we had another great session to move this forward. Some excellent video clips captured from the team. Final session looms. My thanks to all.

Later today, off to see the boys, girlfriend, partner and my new grandson. It will be a great day. The sun is shining. Dinner in Canary Wharf the plan.

Hope all is well with all,
More news next week, JKA

Follow on Twitter @jkaonline, or join me on LinkedIn or Google+.
Check out the pro.manchester blog post for regular updates.

Sunday Times and Croissants - CEO's update 14th August

There is something special about Sunday Morning, The Sunday Times, hot croissants, with honey and butter, excellent. The headlines from today’s Sunday Times suggest the PM is to make life hell for gangs. Great - but is this really the way to deal with the Metropolitan police?

According to a recent paper from the Centre for Economic Policy Research, periods of austerity and budget cuts go hand in hand with social instability and violence. Thatcher knew this. One of the first acts of the Conservative administration was to increase the resources and pay of senior officers in the police force and the army. Ominous but at least there appeared to be a plan.

Cameron’s policy to cut back amongst the met is contra cyclical at a time of augmented social disorder. Bringing in a super cop from the US merely adds insult to redundancy. The use of casual statistics is misleading. To discover that less than a third of the police are on the front line at any one time, is to discover the metrics of a three shift system. We are also told we export more to Ireland than we do to China. So what? We didn’t go to war (twice) with Ireland for the right to export narcotics. This is no time to bash the met or the makers.

This week the ONS delivered more bad news for manufacturing and the trade sector. The march of the makers, rebuilding the workshop of the world, rebalancing the economy had a further set back as manufacturing and export growth slows. The external deficit was worse than anticipated in the Quarterly Economics Review. Keynes would say, when the facts change, I change my opinion. The Bank of England takes a different line. Mystified as to why the trade deficit has not reacted to Sterling’s depreciation, for the old lady, when the facts change, it is time to challenge the facts. Both export numbers and the GDP data, must be wrong, they appear not to fit the model. A great box in the inflation report explains.

Yes it’s the inflation report again. I love the one hour web cast of the Governor and the Bank of England team as they hold a press conference before the top economics journalists. The Governor appears like a disgruntled grandfather, dealing with irritating juvenile questions from young family members across the Sunday dinner table. It can be quite amusing, top names tremble as the Governor demonstrates disdain. Inflation will hit 5%, rates may stay on hold for as much as two years, the letter to the Chancellor explaining the overshoot will be sent by e-mail auto responder and the MPC is to meet quarterly. Excellent.

Back to the day job, Monday and a meeting with Nigel Collier from SkyLab about the e team. Tuesday and a brand meeting to discuss alternate names for the SME club, my thanks to Lee Herbert from Blue Monkey and Simon Calderbank (Studio North) for their help and persistence.

Tuesday evening and news of the disturbances in Manchester filters through. We watch the helicopter hover over the city and read the Twitter feeds. Structured criminality behind a feral facade, the evident explanation of events in the centre. Zero tolerance the only response. Respect to all in the front line and the clean up. Inadequate condolences to all those affected by the violence.

The Manchester spirit demonstrated by one of our directors, SKIP, (Steve K, the big name in IP), nothing would menace his pilgrimage to the Mark Addy for the Tuesday night gastro pub evening.

Wednesday morning, a finance committee meeting followed by a meeting with Chris Froggatt at Ford Campbell. Great corporate finance company with a focussed business plan. Thursday a meeting with the Steering Group at Shoosmiths. It’s alway good to present to so many seniors in any of the member companies.
 
Friday and a day off to meet up with the grandchildren. Lots of photos up on Facebook. Strange to be called a grandfather but really stunned when my youngest son is referred to as Dad. Spooky.

Hope all is well with all, more news next week,
John
John Ashcroft CEO pro.manchester.
Follow on Twitter @jkaonline, or join me on LinkedIn and Google+ @John Ashcroft.

* CEPR Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009 Jacopo Ponticelli , Hans-Joachim Voth

Sunday Times and Croissants - CEO's update 7th August

There is something special about Sunday Morning, The Sunday Times, hot croissants, with honey and butter, excellent. Last Sunday I received a letter from America. Well, it was an e-mail from Angie Robinson in DC, a sort of Washington Post and Waffles. The latter a reference to breakfast, not to the literary style of the new CEO of Manchester Central of course.

Why, Angie asked, had I made no mention of the US debt crisis, with the nation perched on the edge of financial disaster, Angie and Drew, from Marketing Manchester, were on the spot enjoying the tea party. I had ignored the major issue. Why so? The answer, as an avid fan of West Wing, I had seen it all before. Sooner or later, Ged Bartlett marches on Capitol hill and the republicans retreat. West Wing season 5 - Shutdown. And so it proved by midweek, the crisis was over. The deadline was met. The debt ceiling had been raised yet again. Life goes on. I sort of knew it would.

Back in the UK, my deadline for the Economics Quarterly loomed. In purdah for virtually three days, the 44 page document finally went to the printers on Wednesday. Released next week, the title is of a recovery off track and a headline GDP growth rate slashed to just over 1%. The march of the makers rebuilding the workshop of the world just another Big Society trope.

Since then both the Office for Budget responsibility and the Bank of England have hinted of a downgrade to their own forecasts [both Robert Chote and Charlie Bean will be with us in the early Autumn]. Paul Krugman blogged on Osborne delusions finding solace in fantasy. The wolf is at the door and Mr Osborne thinks it is the confidence fairy. He said it not me.

Another e-mail on Sunday, this one from David Smith who took great exception to my reference that he had bought the official ONS line on Q2 growth hook line and sinker. David thought the reference was
silly. This from an economist still waiting for depreciation and the J curve to improve the balance of payments. Excellent. I apologised of course, blaming the croissants.

Thursday, the markets crashed as fears of a double dip recession, US debt and prospects for the Southern states of Europe returned to top of mind. You know things are bad when Robert Peston appears on Newsnight. The day job, an end is nigh, sandwich board in Threadneedle street, cast aside for the evening.

Markets crashed, S & P down graded the US debt below that of Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Vince Cable and the Chancellor crowed about safe havens as ten year gilts fell below 3%. Safe haven maybe but capital flows are not reflected in an undervalued currency and the exit of US funds from the UK banking sector.

What will happen in Euroland? Sooner or later the Germans will have to put more into the European Financial Stability Facility, back a Euro bond programme and invest in some olive bonds from Italy and Spain. The message to markets has to be substantial. Markets love to nibble and will wage war on the weakest in sequence. Yields have risen to over 6% in Italy and Spain. What is it about 7% that is so terminal?

Enough of world affairs,Thursday and a meeting with Clive Memmott CEO of the GM Chamber of Commerce. Friday and a brain storming session to discuss the name for SME club. Six weeks to launch, no name and no web site is something of a challenge. A great piece in the FT last week about e-commerce quoting Zynga and others. The key message this is interactive e. The old formula get it right then go is replaced by the more dynamic, go then get it right. I copied the article to Rachel and the team to offer some reassurance and relief.

Good session with the brain storm, they all liked the use of the word real. Ian Brodie later put the boot in to that. Lunchtime and a meeting with David Sharrock and Adam Jupp from MEN to discuss progress on SME club. This followed by a meeting with Fudge, cool creatives from Bolton and latest recruits to the e-team.

Saturday and the rugby season opens. Hurray. Always good to see England beat the Welsh but who on earth decided to play the team in an All Black Strip. Over eighty thousand supporters, the majority in
white strip almost sang somewhere over the rainbow, instead of swing low in the confusion. For the world cup the RFU should go further and prepare an England haka, a sort of cross between Morris dancing and march of the Icenae.

The diary is thinning out so every chance to get forty years of UK trade written up as a discussion paper. Will meet up with the kids this week, Helen is back from Ireland and Pete is up with the latest Ashcroft derivative.

Hope all is well with all, more news next week,
John
John Ashcroft CEO pro.manchester.

My top ten Twitter Apps including the @GMTweetmap here

Just posted my slideshare presentation on my top ten Twitter Apps. This includes Tweetdeck and the released today GMTweetmap. This is the list which ranks the most influential twitterers in the Manchester. Not without some flaws since I appear to be ranked at #160. The list is changing all the time thanks to a real time scrape from Nick the geek alias Nick McCloud from Descartes and a nice design from Richard Hudson at Vanilla Storm.

What that guy Nick cannot do with a database defies belief. Meeting of the e-team tomorrow as SME club takes shape. SME club, it will be huge. At the tip of the e-team vanguard is the ISM squad. More on this to follow. JKA

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The views expressed are my own and in no way reflect pro.manchester policy. In no way should the comments be considered as investment advice or guidelines or reflect political bias. UK Economics news and analysis : no politics, no dogma, no polemics, just facts. JKA is a visiting professor at MMU Business School, an economist and specialist in Corporate Strategy, educated at LSE, London Business School with a PhD from Manchester Metropolitan University.

So you think you are hot in social media marketing, this is twirlr - gotta share!

 

pro.manchester SME club and the e-team - coming soon ....

Plans for the launch of SME club are proceeding at pace. This project will be huge for Manchester and we already have great support from the Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, Business Solutions and the Manchester family. As the largest advisory group in the North West, pro.manchester will offer free advice to businesses in Greater Manchester as part of the SME club project. It is a huge business development project for members and offers great value to the Manchester Business Community.

This week I met to discuss the project with Mike Blackburn Chairman of the Greater Manchester LEP, who was quick to realise the potential and offer full support. Greater Manchester Business Week will be the media partner on the project guaranteeing great exposure for members of SME club. A major sponsorship deal will be announced later this month and we are looking for a Digital Marketing manager to join the pro.manchester executive team.

Included in the SME club project are the e-team. So what is the e-team all about? E-Commerce, E-business and social media are essential for any business and the e-team is a group of specialist businesses in this space. It is important we engage with the best thinkers, who will challenge every step of the process and ensure we deliver a product fit for purpose to engage with the one hundred thousand businesses in  Greater Manchester.

E-commerce, e-business, web design, layout, SEO, PPC, Keyword strategies, e-mail programmes, remarketing, retargeting, link strategies, integrating social media, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, video, cloud, and even Google+, if you have something to offer the e-team and want to join the squad get in touch. If you have something to learn (and we all do) get on the SME club mailing list. It is going to be the biggest initiative ever undertaken in this space and it is all private sector led.

SME club and the e-team will be huge. The web site will be up soon. It has been designed by E-word as part of their contribution to the project. We always say, ask the private sector for money and you have a problem, show the private sector a way to make money and you have a solution.

After all, we are pro.manchester, who would not work with us.

pro.manchester SME club. It is going to be huge.

The views expressed are my own and in no way reflect pro.manchester policy. In no way should the comments be considered as investment advice or guidelines or reflect political bias. UK Economics news and analysis : no politics, no dogma, no polemics, just facts. JKA is a visiting professor at MMU Business School, an economist and specialist in Corporate Strategy, educated at LSE, London Business School with a PhD from Manchester Metropolitan University.